The BCS

Since Notre Dame's regular season is complete, and we're still a few
weeks away from N.D.'s match-up with Louisiana State, this week the
focus turns to the Bowl Championship Series. This consortium of bowl
games and major football conferences has been a thorn in the side of
most college football fans since it debuted in 1998, replacing the Bowl
Alliance, which was a smaller version of the same system.

There seem to be two camps of college football fans. The first is
comprised of those who like the old system, where conference champions
were aligned to particular bowls and teams were matched up with little
regard for rankings. The chaos of New Year's Day, and the fact that
all the important games were played on that day, made it (for some) the
best day in sports. The other camp of college football fans thinks
there needs to be a championship tournament of some design to determine
a true national champion at season's end. Many Notre Dame fans in
particular seem to flock to this school of thought, as many think it
has become increasingly apparent that a widespread bias against the
Irish permeates the current system and will continue to undermine
N.D.'s ability to compete for the national title.

So, what might a system like this look like? Suspend your disbelief
for a few minutes, and discard considerations like the bowl game
traditions and so on.

Division I-A of the NCAA is comprised of 118 teams in 11 conferences. A
true national championship tournament should, theoretically at least,
give every team in Division I-A a chance to win the national
championship, just like in college basketball. The way to address this
would be to give each of the conference champions in Division I-A an
automatic berth into an NCAA-sanctioned college football tournament.
Since the 11 conference champions will not make for an even bracket, a
Selection Committee similar to the one the NCAA uses for its basketball
tournament would choose five at-large schools based upon a Ratings
Percentage Index (RPI) system comparable to the one used by the
selection committee in college basketball. (For those that don't know,
the RPI takes into account a team's own winning percentage, as well as
the winning percentage of its opponents and its opponents' opponents.)
Of course, there will be howls of protest from the teams who are passed
over for the final at-large spot, but I have less of a problem with a
team like 10-3 Arkansas being left out of the tournament, for example,
than an 11-1 Michigan squad not getting a shot at the national title in
the current system.

To facilitate a 16-team tournament, the NCAA would have to do several
things. First, they would have to take back the 12th game it gave to
schools, leaving teams to scale their schedules back to 10 or 11 games
in a season. Additionally, the NCAA could move the season up one
week, starting the weekend previous to Labor Day weekend, allowing the
regular season and conference championships to be completed by
Thanksgiving weekend. Then, a Division I-A championship tournament
sanctioned by the NCAA could commence during the first week of
December. During the first two weekends in December, games would be
staged at the home stadia of the higher-seeded teams in the bracket.
During the third week of December, the national semifinals could be
staged at any number of larger warm weather venues that the NCAA would
choose annually (e.g. the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, and Dolphins Stadium
in Miami). Then, a bye would be provided (this could also be moved to
the third weekend, if final exams are a major concern) during the
fourth weekend in December. Finally, the national championship game
would be staged on January 1, at a venue determined by the NCAA (e.g.
University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, where this year's
BCS title game is being played).

So what would a bracket like this look like? To the best of my
knowledge, there is no official RPI system for college football right
now, so I used one of Jeff Sagarin's computer rankings to facilitate
the seeding of the teams for this year's "tournament." (Sagarin has
been doing computer rankings for years, and was selected for no other
reason than he's probably the best-known college football
statistician/computer ratings person.) The teams would be seeded as
such:

(1) Ohio State (12-0), Big Ten Champions
(2) Michigan (11-1), Big Ten (At-Large)
(3) Florida (12-1), SEC Champions
(4) Southern California (10-2), Pac-10 Champions
(5) Louisiana State (10-2), SEC (At-Large)
(6) Boise State (12-0), WAC Champions
(7) Auburn (10-2), SEC (At-Large)
(8) Wisconsin (11-1), Big Ten (At-Large)
(9) Notre Dame (10-2), Independent (At-Large)
(10) Louisville (11-1), Big East Champions
(11) Oklahoma (10-2), Big XII Champions
(12) Wake Forest (11-2), ACC Champions
(13) Brigham Young (10-2), MWC Champions
(14) Houston (10-3), Conference USA Champions
(15) Central Michigan (9-4), MAC Champions
(16) Troy (7-5), Sun Belt Champions

A bracket of this year's "tournament" is attached to this email.

One can imagine the possibilities for such a system. Imagine how much
money the networks would pay for such a spectacle. In 1999, CBS paid
the NCAA $6 billion to cover the NCAA basketball tournament for 11
years. Given the "buzz" that a college football tournament would
create, one wonders how much the NCAA and its member institutions could
derive from it. Furthermore, conferences would benefit from the added
interest and ratings for their championship games. It is clear that
the current system is in place because it lines the coffers of athletic
departments throughout the country. An overhaul to the system,
however, might make everyone more money, which will ultimately benefit
student-athletes and universities, which is what it is supposed to be
about anyway.

Fans would be big beneficiaries as well, as the college football
champion would finally be determined on the playing field. This year,
if Michigan made it through its side of the bracket to play Ohio State
again, no one could refute the fact that they had earned a rematch.
What college football fan would miss any of these games, knowing that
any game's outcome could potentially have a bearing upon their team's
path to the national championship?

At any rate, this certainly isn't the only possible answer, but it
would help to allay the yearly arguments about who deserves to play
where and so on. If nothing else, consider it more grist for the mill
as the controversy in college football continues.

In the coming weeks, I'll touch upon the upcoming BCS games, in
particular Notre Dame's big match-up with Louisiana State, a team the
Irish have not played since 1998.

Go Irish! Beat Tigers!

Big Mike

originally published December 6, 2006

copyright Michael D. McAllister 2006

Notre Dame at 10-2

The 2006 regular season has drawn to a close. What to make of it?
Certainly, going into the season fans of the Irish had high
expectations, as did the national media that ranked Notre Dame #2 in
the pre-season polls. Indeed, the program's twelfth national
championship was hoped for and dreamed about as Brady Quinn led the
Irish into the program's 118th season of college football. After a
tough and hard-fought 14-10 win at Georgia Tech to open the season, the
Irish offense came alive in week 2 against an overmatched Penn State
squad, winning 41-17 in the Lions' first visit to N.D. since 1992.

The week following, in a game that will long plague fans of the Irish,
Michigan traveled to South Bend and administered a thorough beat-down
to the Irish, 47-21, in the Wolverines' first win at N.D. since 1994.
Brady Quinn's Heisman Trophy hopes for the season all but evaporated in
the 80-degree temperatures of that day, as he threw three interceptions
and had a late fumble returned for a touchdown by the Wolverines'
opportunistic defense. Notre Dame looked lackluster in a loss that
caught many by surprise after the Irish had won at Michigan the
previous season.

With a dose of humility provided by the annual tilt with Michigan, the
Irish continued with their national title hopes severely compromised.
The following week, it looked as though an underdog Michigan State
squad would ruin Notre Dame's season yet again. With the Irish down
37-20 going into the fourth quarter, Quinn engineered a classic
comeback, capped by Terrail Lambert's interception return for the
go-ahead touchdown, as the Irish came from 17 points down to win,
40-37. Home wins against traditional foe Purdue (35-21) and an
overmatched Stanford (31-10) allowed the Irish to crawl out a bit from
the hole that they had dug for themselves against Michigan. At the
season's midpoint, their record stood at a respectable 5-1.

Following a bye week, the Irish looked asleep at the wheel again, this
time in UCLA's first visit to South Bend since 1964. Quinn provided
the heroics once more, however, completing a long touchdown pass to
Jeff Samardzija with only seconds remaining to give the Irish an
improbable 20-17 victory. In Notre Dame's 43rd consecutive victory
over Navy, Quinn and the offense put on an impressive display,
outclassing the Middies, 38-14 in Baltimore. Wins over North Carolina
(45-26), at Air Force (39-17), and Army (41-9) brought the Irish to the
brink of the season's end with an impressive 10-1 record.

In the final game of the season, the Irish headed out to Los Angeles
for their annual clash with arch-rival Southern California. After the
heartbreaking defeat at the hands of the Trojans last season, the Irish
were looking to win their first game over Southern Cal in five
attempts. Just like in the Michigan game, however, the Irish looked
outmanned by the Trojans' formidable talent and depth. Although Notre
Dame made a game of it, the Trojans won going away, 44-24, the third
straight loss of 20 points or more for the Irish in games at Southern
Cal.

Now, Notre Dame sits at 10-2, only the second time the program has had
that record at the end of a regular season (along with 2002). Charlie
Weis has led the Irish to a 19-5 (.792) record in his first 24 games,
the best record for an Irish coach at this point in his career since
Ara Parseghian started 20-3-1 (.854) between 1964 and 1966.
Furthermore, the Irish have scored more points (829) through 24 games
for Weis than for any Notre Dame coach since Jesse Harper, whose teams
scored 833 points in his first 24 games (1913-1915). The 563 points
given up by Weis's Irish, however, is an all-time worst for a coach
through his first 24 games, belying the fact that recruiting on that
side of the ball needs to be shored up, and that changes in the
defensive staff may be called for. Overall, the 266 points by which
the Irish have outscored their opponents through Weis's first 24 games
is the best for an Irish coach at this point since Parseghian's 514
points.

\ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \

At 10-2 and currently ranked #10 in the BCS ratings, Notre Dame appears
headed to one of this year's major bowl games. At this point, it looks
like there are four possible match-ups for the Irish, in either the
Rose Bowl or, more likely, the Sugar Bowl. These potential opponents
are:

-Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2, #9 BCS, #8 AP, #8 Coaches): Winners of this
year's West Division of the Southeastern Conference, the Razorbacks
feature TB Darren McFadden, considered a potential finalist for the
Heisman Trophy ceremony. Arkansas's two losses both came at home, to
#2 Southern Cal (50-14) and last weekend to #5 Louisiana State (31-26).
The biggest wins of their season were at #11 Auburn (a 27-10 win) and
at home against #17 Tennessee (31-14). The Irish likely would only
face Arkansas, a team they have never played, if the Razorbacks defeat
Florida in the SEC Championship game in Atlanta this weekend.

-Florida Gators (11-1, #4 BCS, #4 AP, #4 Coaches): Florida won the
always competitive East Division of the SEC this season and feature
former Irish recruit QB Chris Leak. Leak was considered by many a
Heisman candidate at season's start, but not as much now. Florida's
lone loss was at #11 Auburn, 27-17. Their biggest wins were at #17
Tennessee (21-20) and at home against #5 Louisiana State (23-10).
Florida's head coach is Urban Meyer, whom Notre Dame reportedly pursued
after the firing of Ty Willingham, which would make for a media circus
to be sure. For the Irish to play the Gators, Florida will likely need
to defeat Arkansas on Saturday night.

-Louisiana State Tigers (10-2, #5 BCS, #5 AP, #5 Coaches): LSU has
survived the minefield of the SEC regular season and, unlike Arkansas,
has the benefit of not having to play in the conference championship
game. If Arkansas loses on Saturday night, the Tigers could step in
and take a berth in the Rose Bowl. Winners of the BCS in 2003, LSU
this year is led by QB JaMarcus Russell. LSU's two losses came at #11
Auburn (7-3) and at #4 Florida (23-10). Their biggest wins came at #17
Tennessee (28-24) and last weekend at #8 Arkansas (31-26). An Irish
meeting with LSU would have to come in the Rose Bowl.

-Michigan Wolverines (11-1, #3 BCS, #3 AP, #3 Coaches): Like LSU,
Michigan did not win its conference, but seems certain to receive a
berth in the BCS. Of course the Wolverines and Irish have met once
already this season, a 47-21 victory at N.D. for Michigan. Michigan's
sole loss came at #1 Ohio State (42-39). Their biggest wins came at
#12 Notre Dame and at home against 11-1 #7 Wisconsin (27-13). The
Irish could possibly face the Wolverines in the Rose Bowl, but it seems
unlikely because the BCS normally eschews rematches.

Regardless of where the Irish end up and whom they play, Weis and this
year's seniors will look to end the program's eight-game bowl losing
streak which started at the end of the 1994 season in a 41-24 loss to
Colorado. Doing so would vanquish some of the pain from this season’s
two defeats.

\ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \

Other notes:

-Notre Dame last finished a regular season 10-2 in 2002. They followed
it up with a 28-6 loss to North Carolina State in the Gator Bowl.

-With his 274-yard, 3-TD performance on Saturday against Southern Cal,
Irish QB Brady Quinn moved up to #9 on the NCAA all-time TD passes
list, and #10 on the NCAA all-time passing yardage list.

-In the ongoing competition between Michigan and Notre Dame for college
football’s all-time best winning percentage, here is where things stand:

#3 Michigan’s season is complete. Their record stands at 860-281-36
for an all-time winning percentage of .7460.

#6 Notre Dame lost at #3 Southern Cal, 44-24, dropping their record to
821-268-42 for an all-time winning percentage of .7445. #12 Notre
Dame’s regular season is complete.

Michigan’s lead stands at 15/10,000ths of a point.

Go Irish!

Big Mike

originally published November 29, 2006

copyright Michael D. McAllister 2006