Bye and By

This week's installment will be relatively brief because, like the Irish, I am taking a reprieve from the wear of the college football season.

The Irish are at the mid-point of the 2006 regular season and are taking a much-deserved week off from the gridiron grind. At 5-1, Notre Dame's record is respectable, particularly considering the difficulty of the first five weeks of their schedule. Keeping in mind 0-6 Stanford's record, N.D.'s six opponents have gone a combined 21-9 (.700) in games played against opponents other than the Irish, particularly impressive considering that all six opponents come from BCS conferences. Georgia Tech is ranked #13 and sits atop its division in the ACC. Penn State's only other loss was on the road at #1 Ohio State. #4 Michigan remains undefeated heading into this weekend's game at Penn State. Michigan State has started its mid-season swoon a few weeks early, but their record still stands at 3-3, while Purdue is 4-2 after laying an egg against Minnesota last weekend. Stanford is woeful at 0-6, really this season's only "gimme" so far.

So what of N.D.'s 5-1 start? Two-thousand-six marks the sixtieth time in the 118-season history of Notre Dame football that the Irish have won at least five of their first six games. In the previous 59 seasons of 5-1 or better starts (5-1-0, 5-0-1, or 6-0-0), Notre Dame has a combined record of 503-69-19 (.8672). Looking beyond mere wins or losses, N.D.'s overall point differential through its first six games is the third lowest of any team with a start of 5-1 or better (+40). Only 1998 (+35) and 1939 (+29) saw the Irish start with such a good record, but yet score so few points in relation to its opposition through six games. What does this mean? Many statisticians have observed that a team's overall point differential is a better prognosticator than its record at any given point. If that's the case, then we might expect the Irish to finish the regular season with a record of 9-3, given that other N.D. teams with similar point differentials ended up with winning percentages at or near 75%. Of course, it is also difficult to account for the quality of Notre Dame's opposition this season, as well as Coach Weis's propensity to "call off the dogs" when a game is apparently out of reach, as was the case with the Purdue and Stanford games the past two weeks.

As always, it is interesting to see how an Irish team takes a unique personality from year to year. This year's unit is maddening at times, seemingly content with their pre-season accolades, looking listless and disinterested at times. Yet, they showed a great deal of heart in winning at Georgia Tech, a win that looks more impressive with each passing week, and at Michigan State, where they came from 16 points back to win in the closing minutes of the game. The season's second half gears up next week with UCLA's first visit to South Bend in 42 years, as the Irish face a slate of five very winnable games before the season finale at Southern Cal.

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In the ongoing competition between Michigan and Notre Dame for college football's all-time best winning percentage, here is how things stand after last weekend:

#6 Michigan won at unranked Michigan State, 31-13, extending its record to 855-280-36 for an all-time winning percentage of .7455. This week, #4 Michigan travels to unranked Penn State.

#12 Notre Dame won at home against unranked Stanford, 31-10, extending its record to 816-267-42 for an all-time winning percentage of .7440. This week, #9 Notre Dame is idle.

Michigan's lead over Notre Dame stands at 15/10,000ths of a point.

Enjoy the open weekend!

Go Irish!

Big Mike

copyright Michael D. McAllister 2006